Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.8%
Derby
27.5%
Draw
25.7%
Bristol City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.54
Derby
vs
1.09
Bristol City
Markets
BTTS53.1%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.574.8%
Over 2.548.8%
Over 3.527.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
8.6%
0-0
8.2%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
5.1%
3-1
4.8%
3-0
4.4%
0-2
4.3%
3-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).