Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.4%
Setubal
22.3%
Draw
21.3%
Portimonense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.78
Setubal
vs
0.99
Portimonense
Markets
BTTS51.7%
Over 0.594.2%
Over 1.575.8%
Over 2.552.3%
Over 3.530.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
11.7%
1-1
10.6%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.8%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
5.9%
3-1
5.8%
0-0
5.8%
1-2
5.5%
2-2
4.9%
0-2
3.1%
3-2
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).