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18 Apr 2023 · 19:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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26.2%
Milton Keynes Dons
25.3%
Draw
48.5%
Charlton

Expected Goals (xG)

0.92

Milton Keynes Dons

vs
1.38

Charlton

Markets

BTTS44.1%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.565.9%
Over 2.540.5%
Over 3.520.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
14.8%
1-1
11.7%
1-0
10.3%
0-2
9.5%
0-0
8.9%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
5.9%
0-3
4.4%
2-0
4.3%
2-2
4.1%
1-3
4.0%
2-3
1.9%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).