Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.5%
Moreirense
28.2%
Draw
18.3%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.49
Moreirense
vs
0.76
Tondela
Markets
BTTS42.2%
Over 0.588.5%
Over 1.566.7%
Over 2.539.1%
Over 3.519.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.7%
1-1
12.9%
2-0
11.6%
0-0
11.5%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
7.1%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
4.6%
3-1
4.4%
2-2
3.4%
0-2
3.1%
4-0
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).