Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.3%
Brentford
26.4%
Draw
44.3%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Brentford
vs
1.73
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS63.1%
Over 0.594.1%
Over 1.583.1%
Over 2.560.1%
Over 3.537.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.1%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
6.2%
0-0
5.9%
1-3
5.3%
1-0
4.7%
2-0
4.2%
0-3
3.8%
2-3
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).