Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.0%
Arouca
22.6%
Draw
28.4%
Alverca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.74
Arouca
vs
1.27
Alverca
Markets
BTTS58.8%
Over 0.595.5%
Over 1.579.7%
Over 2.557.9%
Over 3.535.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
9.1%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
6.9%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
6.0%
3-1
5.5%
0-0
4.5%
3-0
4.3%
0-2
4.0%
3-2
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).