Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →65.0%
Cambridge
21.8%
Draw
13.2%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.75
Cambridge
vs
0.62
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS37.9%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.568.1%
Over 2.542.3%
Over 3.521.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.7%
2-0
14.2%
1-1
9.7%
2-1
8.9%
0-0
8.9%
3-0
8.3%
0-1
6.3%
3-1
5.2%
4-0
3.6%
1-2
3.2%
2-2
2.8%
4-1
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).