Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.0%
Swindon
26.5%
Draw
35.6%
Exeter
Expected Goals (xG)
1.24
Swindon
vs
1.19
Exeter
Markets
BTTS48.8%
Over 0.591.7%
Over 1.569.2%
Over 2.543.7%
Over 3.522.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.5%
1-0
11.5%
0-1
11.0%
0-0
8.3%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
4.8%
3-1
3.3%
1-3
3.1%
3-0
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).