Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.4%
Arsenal
25.1%
Draw
14.5%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.84
Arsenal
vs
0.81
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS48.1%
Over 0.591.5%
Over 1.575.6%
Over 2.549.4%
Over 3.527.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.0%
1-1
12.0%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.5%
3-0
7.4%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
4.3%
1-2
4.2%
2-2
3.9%
4-0
3.4%
4-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).