Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.1%
Swansea
29.4%
Draw
32.5%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.29
Swansea
vs
1.17
Derby
Markets
BTTS51.1%
Over 0.590.4%
Over 1.571.5%
Over 2.544.6%
Over 3.523.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.0%
1-0
9.9%
0-0
9.6%
0-1
8.9%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
5.9%
2-2
4.9%
3-1
3.6%
3-0
3.0%
1-3
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).