Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →80.5%
Birmingham
11.9%
Draw
7.7%
Barnsley
Expected Goals (xG)
2.80
Birmingham
vs
0.74
Barnsley
Markets
BTTS48.5%
Over 0.597.6%
Over 1.586.3%
Over 2.568.5%
Over 3.547.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.4%
3-0
10.6%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
8.4%
3-1
7.9%
4-0
7.4%
1-1
5.5%
4-1
5.5%
5-0
4.2%
2-2
3.1%
5-1
3.1%
3-2
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).