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06 Aug 2024 · 18:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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46.7%
Ipswich
28.8%
Draw
24.5%
Hertford Town

Expected Goals (xG)

1.23

Ipswich

vs
0.80

Hertford Town

Markets

BTTS38.6%
Over 0.587.3%
Over 1.559.8%
Over 2.533.2%
Over 3.514.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
16.6%
0-0
12.7%
1-1
12.5%
0-1
10.9%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
5.2%
0-2
4.2%
3-0
4.1%
3-1
3.3%
2-2
3.2%
1-3
1.4%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).