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06 Dec 2025 · 11:15

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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37.8%
Arka Gdynia
25.9%
Draw
36.4%
Motor Lublin

Expected Goals (xG)

1.55

Arka Gdynia

vs
1.52

Motor Lublin

Markets

BTTS62.5%
Over 0.594.4%
Over 1.582.1%
Over 2.559.3%
Over 3.536.9%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
11.9%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.2%
0-1
6.1%
2-0
5.6%
0-0
5.6%
0-2
5.3%
3-1
4.4%
1-3
4.2%
3-2
3.3%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).