Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.6%
Fiorentina
27.5%
Draw
22.9%
Lecce
Expected Goals (xG)
1.35
Fiorentina
vs
0.82
Lecce
Markets
BTTS41.3%
Over 0.588.9%
Over 1.563.7%
Over 2.537.1%
Over 3.517.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.6%
1-1
12.4%
0-0
11.1%
2-0
10.4%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
5.2%
3-0
4.7%
3-1
3.9%
0-2
3.8%
2-2
3.5%
4-0
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).