Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.6%
Millwall
28.1%
Draw
23.3%
Birmingham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.48
Millwall
vs
0.95
Birmingham
Markets
BTTS48.3%
Over 0.590.3%
Over 1.570.7%
Over 2.543.8%
Over 3.522.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.3%
1-0
12.1%
0-0
9.7%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
4.8%
3-1
4.5%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
4.0%
3-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).