Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.3%
Spezia
28.4%
Draw
26.3%
Crotone
Expected Goals (xG)
1.49
Spezia
vs
1.08
Crotone
Markets
BTTS52.4%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.573.9%
Over 2.547.4%
Over 3.525.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.5%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.9%
2-0
8.5%
0-1
7.1%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
5.0%
3-1
4.5%
0-2
4.5%
3-0
4.2%
3-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).