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18 Apr 2023 · 19:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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38.1%
Gateshead
24.4%
Draw
37.5%
Dorking

Expected Goals (xG)

1.69

Gateshead

vs
1.67

Dorking

Markets

BTTS67.0%
Over 0.595.7%
Over 1.585.7%
Over 2.565.2%
Over 3.543.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
10.6%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
8.2%
2-2
6.9%
1-0
5.0%
0-1
5.0%
2-0
4.9%
0-2
4.9%
3-1
4.7%
1-3
4.6%
0-0
4.3%
3-2
3.9%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).