Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.0%
Nacional
25.7%
Draw
17.2%
Belenenses
Expected Goals (xG)
1.45
Nacional
vs
0.65
Belenenses
Markets
BTTS36.3%
Over 0.588.4%
Over 1.561.8%
Over 2.535.3%
Over 3.516.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.2%
2-0
12.8%
0-0
11.6%
1-1
11.0%
0-1
8.4%
2-1
8.4%
3-0
6.2%
3-1
4.1%
1-2
3.8%
2-2
2.8%
0-2
2.6%
4-0
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).