Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →62.9%
Derby
21.3%
Draw
15.8%
Plymouth
Expected Goals (xG)
2.15
Derby
vs
1.00
Plymouth
Markets
BTTS56.7%
Over 0.595.0%
Over 1.583.0%
Over 2.561.0%
Over 3.538.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.9%
1-0
8.4%
3-1
7.1%
3-0
7.1%
0-0
5.0%
2-2
5.0%
1-2
4.6%
4-1
3.8%
4-0
3.8%
3-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).