Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.3%
Spal
24.6%
Draw
18.1%
Sampdoria
Expected Goals (xG)
1.59
Spal
vs
0.77
Sampdoria
Markets
BTTS42.4%
Over 0.590.7%
Over 1.568.0%
Over 2.541.9%
Over 3.521.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.3%
2-0
12.0%
1-1
11.3%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
7.4%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
4.9%
1-2
4.4%
2-2
3.5%
0-2
2.8%
4-0
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).