Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →34.7%
Sporting Gijón
23.0%
Draw
42.3%
Castellon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.52
Sporting Gijón
vs
1.70
Castellon
Markets
BTTS63.8%
Over 0.596.1%
Over 1.583.1%
Over 2.562.5%
Over 3.540.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.2%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
6.9%
2-2
6.7%
1-0
6.2%
0-2
5.8%
1-3
5.0%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
4.0%
0-0
3.9%
2-3
3.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).