Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.1%
Southampton
26.6%
Draw
22.3%
Stoke
Expected Goals (xG)
1.64
Southampton
vs
1.01
Stoke
Markets
BTTS52.3%
Over 0.592.0%
Over 1.575.3%
Over 2.549.5%
Over 3.527.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
9.5%
0-0
8.0%
0-1
6.1%
1-2
5.9%
3-1
5.3%
3-0
5.2%
2-2
4.9%
0-2
3.6%
3-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).