Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.1%
Luton
22.6%
Draw
48.3%
Cardiff
Expected Goals (xG)
1.19
Luton
vs
1.62
Cardiff
Markets
BTTS54.9%
Over 0.595.0%
Over 1.576.1%
Over 2.553.3%
Over 3.531.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
10.7%
1-1
10.6%
1-2
9.4%
1-0
8.1%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
6.9%
2-2
5.6%
1-3
5.1%
0-0
5.0%
2-0
4.3%
0-3
4.3%
2-3
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).