Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.6%
Malaga
30.0%
Draw
26.4%
Burgos
Expected Goals (xG)
1.16
Malaga
vs
0.83
Burgos
Markets
BTTS38.8%
Over 0.586.6%
Over 1.559.2%
Over 2.532.3%
Over 3.514.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.9%
0-0
13.4%
1-1
13.0%
0-1
11.4%
2-0
9.2%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
5.5%
0-2
4.7%
3-0
3.6%
2-2
3.2%
3-1
3.0%
1-3
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).