Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.8%
Nacional
27.0%
Draw
32.2%
Guimaraes
Expected Goals (xG)
1.24
Nacional
vs
1.07
Guimaraes
Markets
BTTS46.0%
Over 0.590.6%
Over 1.566.5%
Over 2.540.6%
Over 3.520.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.9%
1-1
12.6%
0-1
11.2%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
8.2%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
5.7%
2-2
4.4%
3-1
3.4%
3-0
3.2%
1-3
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).