Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.2%
Almeria
20.9%
Draw
19.8%
Numancia
Expected Goals (xG)
2.03
Almeria
vs
1.08
Numancia
Markets
BTTS57.4%
Over 0.595.6%
Over 1.581.6%
Over 2.560.1%
Over 3.537.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.9%
1-1
9.7%
2-0
9.2%
1-0
9.1%
3-1
6.7%
3-0
6.2%
2-2
5.4%
1-2
5.3%
0-1
4.9%
0-0
4.4%
3-2
3.6%
4-1
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).