Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.8%
Guimaraes
25.6%
Draw
29.6%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.40
Guimaraes
vs
1.08
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS49.1%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.570.2%
Over 2.544.9%
Over 3.523.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.3%
1-1
12.1%
0-1
9.6%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.2%
0-0
7.9%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
4.9%
2-2
4.8%
3-1
4.1%
3-0
3.8%
1-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).