Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →18.1%
Vallecano
25.5%
Draw
56.4%
Real Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
0.80
Vallecano
vs
1.62
Real Madrid
Markets
BTTS44.7%
Over 0.590.8%
Over 1.570.1%
Over 2.543.7%
Over 3.522.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
13.9%
1-1
11.9%
0-2
11.6%
1-2
9.3%
0-0
9.2%
1-0
6.7%
0-3
6.3%
1-3
5.1%
2-1
4.6%
2-2
3.8%
2-0
2.9%
0-4
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).