Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.3%
Elche
31.1%
Draw
20.6%
Burgos
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15
Elche
vs
0.64
Burgos
Markets
BTTS32.3%
Over 0.583.5%
Over 1.553.4%
Over 2.526.8%
Over 3.510.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
19.3%
0-0
16.5%
1-1
12.2%
2-0
11.1%
0-1
10.8%
2-1
7.1%
3-0
4.3%
1-2
3.9%
0-2
3.4%
3-1
2.7%
2-2
2.3%
4-0
1.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).