Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →25.0%
Carlisle
22.9%
Draw
52.1%
Swindon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
Carlisle
vs
1.73
Swindon
Markets
BTTS54.9%
Over 0.594.6%
Over 1.577.3%
Over 2.554.2%
Over 3.531.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.8%
0-1
10.5%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.7%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
6.3%
1-3
5.6%
2-2
5.4%
0-0
5.4%
0-3
5.0%
2-0
3.6%
2-3
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).