Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →16.4%
Lugo
24.8%
Draw
58.9%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
0.70
Lugo
vs
1.59
Malaga
Markets
BTTS39.8%
Over 0.589.9%
Over 1.566.4%
Over 2.539.9%
Over 3.519.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.3%
0-2
12.8%
1-1
11.2%
0-0
10.1%
1-2
8.9%
1-0
7.2%
0-3
6.8%
1-3
4.7%
2-1
3.9%
2-2
3.1%
0-4
2.7%
2-0
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).