Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →80.3%
Benfica
14.2%
Draw
5.5%
Farense
Expected Goals (xG)
2.29
Benfica
vs
0.42
Farense
Markets
BTTS30.5%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.575.1%
Over 2.550.9%
Over 3.528.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
17.5%
1-0
15.5%
3-0
13.4%
4-0
7.7%
2-1
7.3%
0-0
6.4%
1-1
6.1%
3-1
5.6%
5-0
3.5%
4-1
3.2%
0-1
3.1%
2-2
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).