Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →19.1%
Luton
19.7%
Draw
61.3%
Man United
Expected Goals (xG)
1.45
Luton
vs
2.60
Man United
Markets
BTTS71.7%
Over 0.597.3%
Over 1.592.1%
Over 2.576.8%
Over 3.557.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
8.6%
1-1
7.5%
1-3
7.4%
2-2
6.2%
0-2
5.9%
2-3
5.4%
0-3
5.1%
1-4
4.8%
2-1
4.8%
0-1
3.6%
2-4
3.5%
0-4
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).