Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.2%
Carlisle
27.1%
Draw
26.7%
Harrogate
Expected Goals (xG)
1.31
Carlisle
vs
0.92
Harrogate
Markets
BTTS43.2%
Over 0.589.7%
Over 1.564.6%
Over 2.538.4%
Over 3.518.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.7%
1-1
12.4%
0-1
10.5%
0-0
10.3%
2-0
9.2%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
5.9%
0-2
4.5%
3-0
4.0%
2-2
3.9%
3-1
3.7%
1-3
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).