Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.1%
Rio Ave
24.3%
Draw
33.5%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.47
Rio Ave
vs
1.28
Estrela
Markets
BTTS55.2%
Over 0.594.2%
Over 1.575.6%
Over 2.552.0%
Over 3.529.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.5%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
8.7%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.9%
0-0
5.8%
2-2
5.7%
0-2
5.2%
3-1
4.3%
3-0
3.4%
1-3
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).