Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.9%
Osasuna
28.7%
Draw
22.3%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
1.34
Osasuna
vs
0.81
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS41.1%
Over 0.588.0%
Over 1.563.4%
Over 2.536.2%
Over 3.517.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.4%
1-1
12.9%
0-0
12.0%
2-0
10.5%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
5.1%
3-0
4.7%
0-2
3.8%
3-1
3.8%
2-2
3.4%
4-0
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).