Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.6%
Arsenal
23.6%
Draw
15.8%
Liverpool
Expected Goals (xG)
2.02
Arsenal
vs
0.96
Liverpool
Markets
BTTS54.9%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.581.2%
Over 2.557.3%
Over 3.534.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.2%
2-0
10.4%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
8.9%
3-0
7.0%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
4.8%
1-2
4.7%
4-0
3.5%
0-1
3.5%
4-1
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).