Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.7%
Alverca
29.9%
Draw
27.4%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.31
Alverca
vs
1.00
Estrela
Markets
BTTS47.1%
Over 0.589.0%
Over 1.568.1%
Over 2.540.5%
Over 3.520.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.0%
1-0
12.0%
0-0
11.0%
0-1
8.9%
2-0
8.5%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
5.0%
2-2
4.2%
3-0
3.7%
3-1
3.7%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).