Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.3%
Luton
23.2%
Draw
37.4%
Burnley
Expected Goals (xG)
1.96
Luton
vs
1.91
Burnley
Markets
BTTS74.3%
Over 0.596.8%
Over 1.590.9%
Over 2.574.2%
Over 3.554.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
8.9%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
7.5%
2-2
7.3%
3-1
5.0%
3-2
4.8%
1-3
4.8%
2-3
4.7%
2-0
4.0%
0-2
3.8%
0-0
3.2%
3-3
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).