Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.5%
Alaves
34.1%
Draw
30.4%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
0.91
Alaves
vs
0.82
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS33.8%
Over 0.582.1%
Over 1.552.0%
Over 2.525.2%
Over 3.59.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
17.9%
1-0
15.8%
0-1
14.2%
1-1
13.5%
2-0
7.4%
2-1
6.0%
0-2
6.0%
1-2
5.4%
2-2
2.5%
3-0
2.2%
3-1
1.8%
0-3
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).