Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.5%
Exeter
25.7%
Draw
20.8%
Cheltenham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.39
Exeter
vs
0.73
Cheltenham
Markets
BTTS37.9%
Over 0.589.0%
Over 1.561.5%
Over 2.535.5%
Over 3.516.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.7%
2-0
11.5%
1-1
11.2%
0-0
11.0%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
8.5%
3-0
5.3%
1-2
4.5%
3-1
3.9%
0-2
3.2%
2-2
3.1%
4-0
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).