Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →25.8%
Ponferradina
31.7%
Draw
42.4%
Alaves
Expected Goals (xG)
0.76
Ponferradina
vs
1.07
Alaves
Markets
BTTS34.9%
Over 0.584.1%
Over 1.554.5%
Over 2.527.7%
Over 3.511.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
17.3%
0-0
15.9%
1-1
12.9%
1-0
12.3%
0-2
9.2%
1-2
7.0%
2-1
5.0%
2-0
4.6%
0-3
3.3%
2-2
2.7%
1-3
2.5%
3-1
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).