Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.4%
Derby
29.0%
Draw
21.5%
Blackburn
Expected Goals (xG)
1.41
Derby
vs
0.84
Blackburn
Markets
BTTS44.0%
Over 0.588.6%
Over 1.566.8%
Over 2.539.2%
Over 3.519.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.9%
1-1
13.4%
0-0
11.4%
2-0
10.4%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
5.3%
3-0
4.9%
3-1
4.1%
0-2
3.7%
2-2
3.7%
3-2
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).