Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.2%
Chaves
26.2%
Draw
37.6%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.21
Chaves
vs
1.24
Estrela
Markets
BTTS49.4%
Over 0.592.0%
Over 1.569.8%
Over 2.544.5%
Over 3.523.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.4%
0-1
11.2%
1-0
11.0%
1-2
8.0%
0-0
8.0%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.6%
2-0
6.3%
2-2
4.9%
1-3
3.3%
3-1
3.2%
0-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).