Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.2%
Gillingham
25.1%
Draw
41.7%
Chesterfield
Expected Goals (xG)
1.21
Gillingham
vs
1.40
Chesterfield
Markets
BTTS52.3%
Over 0.593.2%
Over 1.572.9%
Over 2.548.4%
Over 3.526.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.9%
0-1
10.8%
1-0
9.5%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.2%
0-0
6.8%
2-0
5.4%
2-2
5.3%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.3%
3-1
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).