Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.0%
Middlesbrough
26.8%
Draw
23.2%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.61
Middlesbrough
vs
1.03
Derby
Markets
BTTS52.5%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.575.1%
Over 2.549.2%
Over 3.527.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.8%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.3%
0-0
8.1%
0-1
6.3%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
5.1%
3-0
5.0%
2-2
4.9%
0-2
3.8%
3-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).