Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.7%
Vallecano
28.1%
Draw
28.2%
Sabadell
Expected Goals (xG)
1.28
Vallecano
vs
0.97
Sabadell
Markets
BTTS44.6%
Over 0.589.5%
Over 1.565.5%
Over 2.539.0%
Over 3.519.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.7%
1-1
13.0%
0-0
10.5%
0-1
10.4%
2-0
8.7%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
4.9%
2-2
4.0%
3-0
3.7%
3-1
3.6%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).