Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.2%
Casa Pia
27.1%
Draw
23.7%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.57
Casa Pia
vs
1.02
Estrela
Markets
BTTS51.8%
Over 0.591.6%
Over 1.574.2%
Over 2.548.1%
Over 3.526.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.9%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.2%
0-0
8.4%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
5.0%
3-0
4.8%
2-2
4.8%
0-2
3.9%
3-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).