Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.6%
Carlisle
24.0%
Draw
44.4%
Burton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
Carlisle
vs
1.44
Burton
Markets
BTTS51.5%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.572.4%
Over 2.548.4%
Over 3.526.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
11.6%
1-1
11.4%
1-0
9.6%
1-2
8.9%
0-2
7.6%
2-1
7.2%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
5.2%
2-0
5.0%
1-3
4.3%
0-3
3.7%
3-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).