Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.6%
Chaves
31.8%
Draw
38.6%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
0.81
Chaves
vs
0.97
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS33.9%
Over 0.583.8%
Over 1.552.6%
Over 2.526.5%
Over 3.510.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
17.0%
0-0
16.2%
1-0
14.2%
1-1
12.7%
0-2
8.0%
1-2
6.5%
2-0
5.5%
2-1
5.4%
2-2
2.6%
0-3
2.6%
1-3
2.1%
3-0
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).